Uncertainty is woven into the very fabric of the creation, and the servant who studies this matter comes to realize that the craving for certainty—knowing what tomorrow holds, controlling the details of one's affairs—is a natural human impulse that must be disciplined by faith. People check the weather, await the news of an unborn child, and seek stable investments, all in pursuit of a security that cannot truly be found in the created world, for everything in this life is subject to change save Allah alone. As He says, "Everything will perish except His Face" (Qur'an). The only absolute constant in the universe is Allah, and to Him alone belongs true knowledge and control over the most fundamental affairs of existence.
This truth is affirmed in the verse, "Indeed, Allah [alone] has knowledge of the Hour and sends down the rain and knows what is in the wombs. And no soul perceives what it will earn tomorrow, and no soul perceives in what land it will die. Indeed, Allah is Knowing and Acquainted" (Qur'an). These five matters—the timing of the Hour, the descent of rain, the state of the child in the womb, one's future earnings, and the place of one's death—remain hidden to mankind, and no advancement in science will ever grant us certainty over them. This is the wisdom of Allah, who has decreed that human beings live amid uncertainty regarding nearly all their affairs.
The one who tolerates this uncertainty and grows comfortable with it functions better in life than the one who ceaselessly demands control, for the former acknowledges his lack of absolute command over his affairs and does not distress himself over what lies beyond his reach. By contrast, the one who flees from uncertainty and covets mastery of every detail finds that "what they resist to persist," dwelling in perpetual worry, anxiety, and stress. Modern research describes this condition as uncertainty intolerance—a cognitive bias in how a person perceives and responds to uncertain situations—and decades of study on the roots of worry suggest that it lies at the very foundation of generalized anxiety. Worry breeds fear, and fear causes people to overestimate the likelihood of harm, producing a bleak and pessimistic view of the future that stands in stark opposition to the Islamic worldview of hope and optimism.
The correct posture is to direct one's effort toward the sphere where one truly has agency, while entrusting all that lies beyond one's control to Allah, al-Wakeel, the One most worthy of being relied upon, and to anchor oneself in the only certainty that exists, Allah, al-Haqq, the Truth that never changes. The Prophet ﷺ illustrated this beautifully: "Were you to put your complete trust in Allah, He would provide for you as He provides for the birds. They go out hungry in the morning and return filled in the evening." The birds know neither where nor what they will find, yet their uncertainty does not paralyze them; it moves them to seek out what has been decreed for them. So too the Prophet ﷺ, in matters beyond his control, would make duʿāʾ, such as the istikhāra, and then proceed, certain that Allah would respond, for he commanded, "Call upon Allah with certainty that He will answer you. Know that Allah will not answer the supplication of a heart that is negligent and distracted." When strong winds blew, he would say, "O Allah, I ask You for its goodness and I take refuge with You from its evil." Ibn Taymiyya, reflecting upon the most important supplication, concluded that it was seeking Allah's aid in pleasing Him, found in the Fātiḥa: "It is You alone that we worship and You alone that we rely upon."
In especially uncertain times, such as the spread of the coronavirus, this test from Allah becomes all the more apparent, for He says, "And We will surely test you with something of fear, hunger, loss of wealth, loss of life, and loss of fruits, but give glad tidings to the patient" (Qur'an). To understand which mindsets qualify a person among the patient, Yaqeen Institute conducted a survey of over 1,200 American Muslims as strict social isolation was being implemented. The sample was diverse yet generally religious, with 73% reporting that they prayed five times daily. By the mercy of Allah, the respondents were faring well overall. When asked how they believed matters would unfold, 3% felt no worry at all (a possible state of denial), 49% expressed what was termed "realistic optimism," believing that despite many ordeals, good outcomes would emerge, while 20% held "realistic pessimism," 5% were wholly pessimistic, and nearly a quarter did not know. Encouragingly, 53% reported witnessing many blessings from Allah since the outbreak, and over 58% said their relationship with Allah had improved that week, while only 5% said it had worsened.
The study measured uncertainty intolerance and mental health, finding that 57% did not feel distressed by uncertainty, while 20% did. Using a structural equation model, it was hypothesized that a person's core beliefs about uncertainty influence their mental health, which in turn shapes their outlook and coping. The data strongly supported this: higher uncertainty intolerance predicted significantly worse mental health (B=.68), and worse mental health was associated with failing to see Allah's blessings, greater personal and societal concerns, and a 35% higher likelihood of predicting negative outcomes. Stated positively, greater tolerance of uncertainty predicted better mental health, and better mental health predicted seeing blessings, holding fewer fears, and anticipating good. Frequent Qur'an reading was linked to a more positive outlook, reduced concern, and greater perception of blessings; a grateful disposition likewise predicted seeing blessings; while frequent news-checking predicted a more negative outlook. Though women showed slightly higher uncertainty intolerance, they were more likely than men to express realistic optimism. Both uncertainty intolerance and poor mental health were correlated with negative coping (such as excessive purchasing, emotional eating, and excessive entertainment), though such individuals also engaged in religious and social coping.
From these findings emerge two pathways. On the adaptive path, the Muslim who tolerates uncertainty enjoys lower anxiety and a calm mind that perceives blessings in hardship and turns to Allah through prayer, Qur'an, and duʿāʾ, seeking answers in that which is certain, thus reinforcing a positive cycle. On the maladaptive path, the one intolerant of uncertainty is consumed by fear, and though he may pray, he also checks the news and social media excessively, seeking to resolve uncertainty in that which is itself uncertain, compounding his distress and turning to fruitless comforts. Yet all these beliefs and behaviors are malleable, for Allah is the Changer of Hearts.
The way forward begins with remembering that though this life is a test, we are not meant to face it alone but to seek answers through Allah and His Book, with patience and istikhāra, as the Prophet ﷺ would begin his night prayer: "O Allah, Lord of Jibrīl, Mīkāʾīl, and Isrāfīl... guide me to the truth of these disputed matters." Second, one must discern what can and cannot be controlled, embracing "the paradox of surrender": that enhancing personal peace comes through relinquishing control to Allah, as embodied in the treasure of Paradise, "Lā ḥawla wa lā quwwata illā billāh." Third, one should adopt behaviors that reduce anxiety—daily prayer, Qur'an, dhikr, tahajjud, and reflection upon Allah's Names—alongside gratitude, reflection on nature, mindfulness, and limiting exposure to news. Fourth and most importantly, anxiety may be channeled toward the single concern that matters: whether Allah is pleased with us. The Prophet ﷺ promised that whoever focuses on the concern for the afterlife, Allah will suffice him in the concerns of this world. Ibn Ḥazm concluded, after contemplating human motivation, that the true cure for anxiety is sincerely turning toward Allah in seeking the Hereafter. When the Prophet ﷺ was driven from Ṭāʾif, bleeding and exhausted, he raised his hands and said, "As long as You are not displeased with me, I do not care [what I face]."
Uncertainty, then, is not to be escaped but embraced, placing what lies beyond us in Allah's hands while striving in what lies within our reach: "And seek support through patience and prayer. For indeed, it is difficult [to do this] except for the humbly submissive" (Qur'an). Remarkably, a study found that when ṣalāh is performed with deep concentration, the brain shows decreased activation of the prefrontal cortex associated with seeking control, allowing the believer to experience genuine surrender. Turning to Allah is thus the one action performed with absolute certainty of benefit in this life and the next, for "by the remembrance of Allah hearts are assured" (Qur'an).